Is There a Carrier LBS Infrastructure Resurgence Happening?

Dominique Bonte at ABI says we can expect to see huge increases in revenues from Carriers purchasing LBS infrastructure upgrades, namely around OMA-SUPL standards-compliant platforms that leverage GPS chipset commodities in handsets. The specific number is $2.2B by 2013. Dominique's work in the area of Outdoor GPS is conservative and therefore what I consider honest and good, so I respect what he has to say, but I'm having a hard time swallowing this pill.

The first wave of Carrier LBS infrastructure deployments lasted about 3 years between 1999 and 2001, and after that brief time when MPCs and GMLCs were purchased as standalone pieces of monolithic SS7 equipment, larger infrastructure players such as Ericsson and Nokia started giving the stuff away with network upgrades, destroying business models overnight for those focused on selling standalone LBS gear. Today, everything is IP-based with SUPL, and that means no more fork lifting redundancies of monstrous, expensive, fault-tolerant servers, but rather installing IT-grade inexpensive racks that handle TCP/IP and SIP traffic. The software that runs on it is equally IT-grade and should only command the same inexpensive price tag for a carrier. Compound this with the arrival of Google's Cell-ID offering beyond the command & control of wireless networks, further reducing the value of this once carrier-only information asset, and I wonder... who will pony-up the projected billions to pay infrastructure providers for what is now a commodity?